📐 TRADING TOOL
R:R & Win Rate Breakeven Calculator
Find the exact win rate you need to be profitable at any risk-to-reward ratio — and see your real edge across a 100-trade sample.
Breakeven Matrix — Win Rate Required by R:R
Your current setup is highlighted. Green = profitable at your win rate, amber = marginal, red = losing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a risk-to-reward ratio? ▾
Risk-to-reward (R:R) is the ratio of your potential loss to your potential gain on a trade. A 1:2 R:R means you risk $1 to make $2. Higher R:R means you need fewer winning trades to be profitable.
How is breakeven win rate calculated? ▾
The formula is: Breakeven Win Rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R:R). At 1:2 this gives 1 ÷ 3 = 33.3%. At 1:1 it's 50%. This is the minimum win rate where your expected value per trade equals zero.
What is trading expectancy? ▾
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Reward) − (Loss Rate × Risk). It tells you the average amount you expect to gain or lose per trade, as a multiple of your risk. Positive expectancy = profitable system over a large sample.
Can I be profitable with a 30% win rate? ▾
Yes — at a 1:3 R:R your breakeven win rate is 25%. With a 30% win rate you'd have a positive edge of 5 percentage points and an expectancy of +0.2R per trade. Over 100 trades at 1% risk that's roughly +20% expected return.