🏆 PROP FIRM TOOL
Prop Firm Challenge EV Calculator
Is this prop firm challenge worth attempting? Calculate the expected value based on your win rate, edge, and the firm's terms.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value (EV) in prop firm challenges? ▼
Expected value is the average profit (or loss) you expect per challenge attempt. EV = (Pass probability × Expected payout) − Challenge fee. If EV is positive, the challenge is profitable long-term. If negative, you lose money statistically. For example, 50% pass rate × $5,000 payout − $500 fee = $1,500 positive EV per attempt.
How do I calculate pass probability? ▼
Pass probability depends on your edge (win rate, risk-reward ratio), position sizing, and the challenge rules. This calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation (500 trials) to estimate your probability of hitting the profit target before exceeding the max drawdown. Better win rates, larger R:R ratios, and lower risk per trade all increase pass probability.
What win rate do I need for positive EV? ▼
The break-even win rate is the minimum win rate where your expected payout exceeds the fee. For example, if the fee is $500 and expected payout is $5,000, your break-even win rate is 10% (if each trade wins exactly $500). This tool shows your break-even rate — if you're above it, the challenge is EV positive.
Should I take a challenge with 55% EV positive? ▼
Even slightly positive EV can be profitable over many attempts, but consider variance. At 55% pass rate, you'll fail ~45% of attempts, meaning repeated fees. Most professionals target 60%+ pass probability. Use this calculator to test different risk levels and find the strategy that balances high pass rate with quick profit targets.